{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91c972f0-6aa7-415b-b6fc-9f1e288d5059", "symbol": "CVN", "name": "Carnarvon Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.858, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.93, "architecture_energy": 41.715, "architecture_maturity": 11.46, "architecture_confidence": 76.356, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.78, "rotation_up": 16.62, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 53.24, "rotation_down": 64.17, "downward_expansion": 51.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0976, 0.100527, 0.106519, 0.105841 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.094, "trend_reference": 0.103667, "distance_from_trend": -0.093248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.13792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.837542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047491, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318445, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13139687, "relative_activity": 1.214083, "balance": 0.434832, "dry_up": 1.068213, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11293, "annualized_volatility": 0.435502, "from_high_reference": -0.303704, "from_low_reference": 0.13253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.103667, "fair_value_reference": 0.13792, "structural_low": 0.087, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.113706, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09502, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.211538, "worst_return": 0.015873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.173077, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.173077, "worst_return": -0.173077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.211538, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.185933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.211538, "worst_return": -0.211538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.423077, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.45306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.423077, "worst_return": -0.423077, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020833, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.135, "volume": 20554276, "typical_volume": 8144486.4, "trend": 0.132333, "fair_value": 0.223782, "relative_strength": -4.877768, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.172709, "energy": 18.849473, "activity_lines": [ 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0.138657, "relative_strength": 3.890867, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.98035, "energy": 19.633921, "activity_lines": [ 0.103, 0.107818, 0.109805, 0.107097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1, "volume": 13261402, "typical_volume": 14153023.5, "trend": 0.103233, "fair_value": 0.138401, "relative_strength": -0.469679, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.6989, "energy": 28.298023, "activity_lines": [ 0.101667, 0.105636, 0.109024, 0.106918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.096, "volume": 12568926, "typical_volume": 13431434.85, "trend": 0.103467, "fair_value": 0.138151, "relative_strength": -6.312204, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.110576, "energy": 39.869504, "activity_lines": [ 0.099667, 0.103, 0.107862, 0.106452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.094, "volume": 13139687, "typical_volume": 10822727.05, "trend": 0.103667, "fair_value": 0.13792, "relative_strength": -10.837542, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.930326, "energy": 41.715026, "activity_lines": [ 0.0976, 0.100527, 0.106519, 0.105841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }