{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91da55d2-e025-484f-a3e8-41a89211dc11", "symbol": "FLX", "name": "Purpose Global Flexible Credit Fund - ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 80.511, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.839, "architecture_energy": 28.914, "architecture_maturity": 42.034, "architecture_confidence": 66.928, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.48, "rotation_up": 15.07, "upward_expansion": 14.81, "deceleration": 45.6, "rotation_down": 53.79, "downward_expansion": 69.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.824136, 6.839435, 6.848668, 6.847704 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.85, "trend_reference": 6.852886, "distance_from_trend": -0.000421, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.422408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.124495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003453, "excess_performance": -0.116969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000695, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.761506, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1600, "relative_activity": 0.622568, "balance": 0.761506, "dry_up": 2.159533, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011547, "annualized_volatility": 0.052217, "from_high_reference": -0.017569, "from_low_reference": 0.029818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.852886, "fair_value_reference": 6.422408, "structural_low": 6.710219, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.000495, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030969, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.010067, "worst_return": -0.006262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.004622, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.111974, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.004622, "worst_return": 0.004622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 6.873553, 6.872988, 6.857073, 6.856685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.853392, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 3020.0, "trend": 6.857182, "fair_value": 6.410395, "relative_strength": -10.031265, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.301405, "energy": 3.09745, "activity_lines": [ 6.867445, 6.870069, 6.85728, 6.856503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.863325, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 2130.0, "trend": 6.857512, "fair_value": 6.413775, "relative_strength": -9.415803, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.766869, "energy": 8.571363, "activity_lines": [ 6.866684, 6.868144, 6.858816, 6.856899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.764, "volume": 12800, "typical_volume": 2625.0, "trend": 6.855492, "fair_value": 6.416369, "relative_strength": -10.59379, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.808077, "energy": 32.554227, "activity_lines": [ 6.833527, 6.848245, 6.851023, 6.850866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.81, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 2510.0, "trend": 6.853523, "fair_value": 6.419264, "relative_strength": -9.188871, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.515611, "energy": 39.789757, "activity_lines": [ 6.819063, 6.839497, 6.847888, 6.847931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.85, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 2570.0, "trend": 6.852886, "fair_value": 6.422408, "relative_strength": -11.124495, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.839434, "energy": 28.914326, "activity_lines": [ 6.824136, 6.839435, 6.848668, 6.847704 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }