{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "91de96d5-5e79-4e1c-808e-2f2f601d6034",
    "symbol": "BGC",
    "name": "BGC Group Inc.",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 17.79,
    "architecture_energy": 10.538,
    "architecture_maturity": 27.867,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.923,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.93,
        "rotation_up": 30.36,
        "upward_expansion": 57.6,
        "deceleration": 81.76,
        "rotation_down": 25.89,
        "downward_expansion": 18.93
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        11.077333,
        11.195818,
        11.194794,
        10.923868
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.35,
    "trend_reference": 10.461834,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.01069,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.805558,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175394,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.659061,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.159729,
    "excess_performance": -0.027724,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01069,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08364,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.175394,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.202544,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.086591,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.072396,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.159729,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.632267,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 14622875,
      "relative_activity": 0.990715,
      "balance": 0.632267,
      "dry_up": 0.830266,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.089723,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.336126,
      "from_high_reference": -0.19674,
      "from_low_reference": 0.260178
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 10.461834,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.805558,
      "structural_low": 8.605764,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.013672,
        "positive_rate": 0.5625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011504,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.173219,
        "worst_return": -0.091549,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.010684,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023092,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.235004,
        "worst_return": -0.088612,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.096949,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029478,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.292818,
        "worst_return": -0.175943,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.097161,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.041661,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.613693,
        "worst_return": -0.324955,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
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        "return": 0.040659,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.162392,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.106971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.084806,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
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        "return": -0.015251,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.0625,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 15000991.3,
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        "fair_value": 8.729224,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 22.350425,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 11.52,
        "volume": 12318463,
        "typical_volume": 14760745.9,
        "trend": 10.405352,
        "fair_value": 8.771329,
        "relative_strength": 6.412983,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.377083,
        "energy": 26.685716,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.35,
        "volume": 14622875,
        "typical_volume": 14759922.85,
        "trend": 10.461834,
        "fair_value": 8.805558,
        "relative_strength": -8.659061,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 17.790201,
        "energy": 10.537969,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}