{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91e5f037-0c21-473a-92e9-99c40070809b", "symbol": "SDVY", "name": "FIRST TRUST SMID CAP RISING DIVIDEND ACHIEVERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.218, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.042, "architecture_energy": 70.945, "architecture_maturity": 35.723, "architecture_confidence": 71.067, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.5, "rotation_up": 75.84, "upward_expansion": 91.54, "deceleration": 42.95, "rotation_down": 14.18, "downward_expansion": 13.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.848667, 43.423849, 42.688198, 42.159972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 44.6, "trend_reference": 41.622588, "distance_from_trend": 0.071534, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.208765, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.26673, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.49592, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056245, "excess_performance": -0.131209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071534, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.26673, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035161, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056245, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.790686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5257502, "relative_activity": 0.878229, "balance": 1.790686, "dry_up": 0.772882, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026007, "annualized_volatility": 0.126469, "from_high_reference": -0.011284, "from_low_reference": 0.241826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.622588, "fair_value_reference": 35.208765, "structural_low": 38.324749, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.003095, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": 0.001703, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.093666, "worst_return": -0.097646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016739, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.023405, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.148677, "worst_return": -0.12059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056245, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.023242, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.172623, "worst_return": -0.159539, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.308084, "energy": 68.908112, "activity_lines": [ 42.89233, 42.369911, 41.821383, 41.507635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.39, "volume": 4356375, "typical_volume": 6585443.75, "trend": 41.159498, "fair_value": 34.917324, "relative_strength": -1.434108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.71737, "energy": 73.222871, "activity_lines": [ 43.112117, 42.621894, 42.021062, 41.661144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.28, "volume": 4587899, "typical_volume": 6342415.5, "trend": 41.298405, "fair_value": 35.010562, "relative_strength": -0.056587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.214921, "energy": 65.94231, "activity_lines": [ 43.222, 42.824105, 42.202722, 41.797951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.78, "volume": 4305601, "typical_volume": 6080214.6, "trend": 41.470272, "fair_value": 35.106576, "relative_strength": 0.548801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.482897, "energy": 62.388749, "activity_lines": [ 43.422, 43.070584, 42.417097, 41.958054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.6, "volume": 5257502, "typical_volume": 5986484.8, "trend": 41.622588, "fair_value": 35.208765, "relative_strength": -2.49592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.041785, "energy": 70.945014, "activity_lines": [ 43.848667, 43.423849, 42.688198, 42.159972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }