{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91e87e1e-506c-4dfc-80af-fc320c362c33", "symbol": "000983", "name": "Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.58, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.318, "architecture_energy": 17.578, "architecture_maturity": 39.397, "architecture_confidence": 73.02, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.49, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 15.31, "deceleration": 43.11, "rotation_down": 33.94, "downward_expansion": 62.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.403551, 6.342911, 6.494574, 6.603206 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.61, "trend_reference": 6.741168, "distance_from_trend": -0.019458, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.635228, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134276, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.010628, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095759, "excess_performance": -0.103159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015505, "read": "Falling" 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5.836095, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.018153, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.011024, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.21602, "worst_return": -0.071851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.018079, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.028863, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.589862, "worst_return": -0.129534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009953, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002768, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.421556, "worst_return": -0.127673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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67.161399, "activity_lines": [ 6.143673, 6.470914, 6.608003, 6.701142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.05, "volume": 340126800, "typical_volume": 363166162.55, "trend": 6.742835, "fair_value": 7.663547, "relative_strength": -12.94722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.746776, "energy": 69.518668, "activity_lines": [ 6.05067, 6.367914, 6.541979, 6.655604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.29, "volume": 383028775, "typical_volume": 349068472.1, "trend": 6.734501, "fair_value": 7.652483, "relative_strength": -9.440858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.55039, "energy": 58.19896, "activity_lines": [ 6.124618, 6.32364, 6.504955, 6.626389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.5, "volume": 321232506, "typical_volume": 329290165.45, "trend": 6.734835, "fair_value": 7.643105, "relative_strength": -4.288542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.996538, "energy": 32.809791, "activity_lines": [ 6.267881, 6.324094, 6.492265, 6.61126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.61, "volume": 344412698, "typical_volume": 325338823.35, "trend": 6.741168, "fair_value": 7.635228, "relative_strength": -7.010628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.317933, "energy": 17.578246, "activity_lines": [ 6.403551, 6.342911, 6.494574, 6.603206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }