{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91e8bb62-fba9-41cb-89b2-aa18b5c8c5ee", "symbol": "NWN", "name": "Northwest Natural Gas Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.938, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.579, "architecture_energy": 4.106, "architecture_maturity": 14.094, "architecture_confidence": 77.224, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.38, "rotation_up": 37.08, "upward_expansion": 31.13, "deceleration": 40.64, "rotation_down": 25.57, "downward_expansion": 22.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.186782, 50.046147, 50.202107, 50.513025 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 50.47, "trend_reference": 50.299042, "distance_from_trend": 0.003399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.03423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.615601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059684, "excess_performance": -0.065941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003399, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260671, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055509, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059684, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.570104, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1296281, "relative_activity": 1.049076, "balance": 1.570104, "dry_up": 0.89051, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052633, "annualized_volatility": 0.20305, "from_high_reference": -0.090213, "from_low_reference": 0.301517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.299042, "fair_value_reference": 40.03423, "structural_low": 46.854606, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.014507, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.016561, "regime_survival": 0.45, "best_return": 0.174461, "worst_return": -0.091373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024142, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.007685, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.117117, "worst_return": -0.091282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023369, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.042658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191786, "worst_return": -0.119911, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 49.676698, "fair_value": 39.698256, "relative_strength": -3.954405, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.353443, "energy": 5.811575, "activity_lines": [ 49.686383, 49.580047, 50.484269, 50.411275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.689684, "volume": 1108781, "typical_volume": 1374347.35, "trend": 49.846046, "fair_value": 39.777368, "relative_strength": -1.012394, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.5619, "energy": 4.276579, "activity_lines": [ 50.027253, 49.789164, 50.438288, 50.476629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.1649, "volume": 919757, "typical_volume": 1320699.5, "trend": 50.020776, "fair_value": 39.861725, "relative_strength": 0.306057, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.337459, "energy": 12.565853, "activity_lines": [ 50.471217, 50.080145, 50.446432, 50.561717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.92, "volume": 1076579, "typical_volume": 1305055.3, "trend": 50.123945, "fair_value": 39.942615, "relative_strength": -5.203042, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.578395, "energy": 6.996919, "activity_lines": [ 50.023887, 49.913055, 50.242945, 50.490699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.47, "volume": 1296281, "typical_volume": 1235640.2, "trend": 50.299042, "fair_value": 40.03423, "relative_strength": -5.615601, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.579454, "energy": 4.105906, "activity_lines": [ 50.186782, 50.046147, 50.202107, 50.513025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }