{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91e98fd5-a1ec-4764-8be2-690469695df6", "symbol": "CTM", "name": "Catena Media plc", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 82.65, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 94.162, "architecture_energy": 93.729, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.982, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.59, "rotation_up": 88.47, "upward_expansion": 98.82, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 8.36, "downward_expansion": 20.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.582333, 3.217091, 2.896262, 2.725357 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.25, "trend_reference": 2.483433, "distance_from_trend": 0.71134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.7515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 67.771644, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.361111, "excess_performance": 1.299617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.71134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.261062, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.398562, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.677716, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.541677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.361111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1618589, "relative_activity": 1.850791, "balance": 1.356963, "dry_up": 1.454826, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100181, "annualized_volatility": 0.610579, "from_high_reference": -0.084052, "from_low_reference": 1.799736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.483433, "fair_value_reference": 5.7515, "structural_low": 1.676, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023918, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000429, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.512456, "worst_return": -0.160224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.14311, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170455, "worst_return": -0.352709, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.291097, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.334313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.239009, "worst_return": -0.343186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.985, "volume": 389344, "typical_volume": 715352.0, "trend": 2.327033, "fair_value": 6.005346, "relative_strength": 25.232053, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.850489, "energy": 71.554189, "activity_lines": [ 2.889333, 2.747636, 2.619929, 2.513899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.75, "volume": 2738260, "typical_volume": 817841.75, "trend": 2.395367, "fair_value": 5.875282, "relative_strength": 53.149594, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.870341, "energy": 83.332719, "activity_lines": [ 3.191667, 2.948273, 2.73769, 2.605703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.25, "volume": 1618589, "typical_volume": 874539.0, "trend": 2.483433, "fair_value": 5.7515, "relative_strength": 67.771644, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.162474, "energy": 93.729417, "activity_lines": [ 3.582333, 3.217091, 2.896262, 2.725357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }