{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91f0e561-89d2-44b7-90a3-90a1a4c1ba28", "symbol": "SXLP", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Staples Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.723, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.928, "architecture_energy": 19.913, "architecture_maturity": 22.736, "architecture_confidence": 39.949, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.06, "rotation_up": 39.61, "upward_expansion": 64.07, "deceleration": 62.0, "rotation_down": 18.34, "downward_expansion": 7.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.057, 40.063727, 39.834857, 39.722408 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.77, "trend_reference": 39.549333, "distance_from_trend": 0.00558, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.950481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.553836, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014741, "excess_performance": -0.185632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00558, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034398, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076305, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008592, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03205, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014741, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.517012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33734, "relative_activity": 0.546897, "balance": 0.517012, "dry_up": 0.850617, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033355, "annualized_volatility": 0.153748, "from_high_reference": -0.061364, "from_low_reference": 0.129669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.549333, "fair_value_reference": 36.950481, "structural_low": 37.584999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014123, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.033815, "worst_return": -0.044572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035723, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.054121, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094648, "worst_return": -0.054165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016918, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11896, "worst_return": -0.039941, 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"relative_strength": -5.882319, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.403817, "energy": 50.324453, "activity_lines": [ 40.243332, 39.998545, 39.704381, 39.58872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.055, "volume": 86596, "typical_volume": 64158.15, "trend": 39.293, "fair_value": 36.87266, "relative_strength": -7.241757, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.057279, "energy": 30.808493, "activity_lines": [ 40.220999, 40.029818, 39.75419, 39.64758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.125, "volume": 70168, "typical_volume": 63777.3, "trend": 39.442167, "fair_value": 36.912628, "relative_strength": -7.418464, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.902576, "energy": 25.861174, "activity_lines": [ 40.183666, 40.080181, 39.810619, 39.701258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.77, "volume": 33734, "typical_volume": 61682.6, "trend": 39.549333, "fair_value": 36.950481, "relative_strength": -10.553836, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.928095, "energy": 19.913236, "activity_lines": [ 40.057, 40.063727, 39.834857, 39.722408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }