{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91f68fa3-b4ae-411f-8cbc-cdf77cd23615", "symbol": "WMGT", "name": "WisdomTree Megatrends UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.438, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.428, "architecture_energy": 38.029, "architecture_maturity": 3.541, "architecture_confidence": 56.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.21, "rotation_up": 14.55, "upward_expansion": 19.87, "deceleration": 55.63, "rotation_down": 61.61, "downward_expansion": 44.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.619833, 41.553272, 42.639369, 42.23629 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.52, "trend_reference": 41.716583, "distance_from_trend": 0.019259, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.549868, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.529268, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068342, "excess_performance": 0.017106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019259, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043808, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068342, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168, "relative_activity": 0.054484, "balance": 1.382291, "dry_up": 0.067943, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060433, "annualized_volatility": 0.267693, "from_high_reference": -0.104936, "from_low_reference": 0.333124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.716583, "fair_value_reference": 32.549868, "structural_low": 36.18, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064363, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024173, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 25.6411, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 26.8475, "volume": 1178, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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42.345134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.02, "volume": 317, "typical_volume": 3104.85, "trend": 41.633583, "fair_value": 32.478141, "relative_strength": -8.275609, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.556232, "energy": 47.194383, "activity_lines": [ 40.088499, 41.607772, 42.617131, 42.179102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.52, "volume": 168, "typical_volume": 3083.45, "trend": 41.716583, "fair_value": 32.549868, "relative_strength": -0.529268, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.42784, "energy": 38.02903, "activity_lines": [ 40.619833, 41.553272, 42.639369, 42.23629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }