{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91f95a28-3a03-4190-96db-5497ad990c5f", "symbol": "600770", "name": "Jiangsu Zongyi Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.901, "architecture_energy": 71.419, "architecture_maturity": 13.977, "architecture_confidence": 84.608, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.36, "rotation_up": 11.21, "upward_expansion": 18.45, "deceleration": 34.22, "rotation_down": 72.71, "downward_expansion": 89.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.191333, 5.571091, 5.980619, 6.076774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.24, "trend_reference": 6.162667, "distance_from_trend": -0.149719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.751346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.102845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.4473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220238, "excess_performance": -0.177034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.102845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.561132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104473, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353212, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122421164, "relative_activity": 0.476357, "balance": 0.434186, "dry_up": 0.784003, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1468, "annualized_volatility": 0.605453, "from_high_reference": -0.403189, "from_low_reference": 0.182844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.162667, "fair_value_reference": 4.751346, "structural_low": 4.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.024957, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015309, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.785467, "worst_return": -0.252772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.039428, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.04571, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.104545, "worst_return": -0.266145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02357, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040389, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.591065, "worst_return": -0.430528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.251034, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.760339, "energy": 13.166602, "activity_lines": [ 6.386, 6.360909, 6.415667, 6.352237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.45, "volume": 346002063, "typical_volume": 257014569.5, "trend": 6.177333, "fair_value": 4.760064, "relative_strength": -3.531763, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.160157, "energy": 11.12942, "activity_lines": [ 6.112667, 6.164, 6.33119, 6.305957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.69, "volume": 201903559, "typical_volume": 255878146.5, "trend": 6.164667, "fair_value": 4.754679, "relative_strength": -17.68729, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.495568, "energy": 47.314052, "activity_lines": [ 5.607333, 5.872364, 6.18019, 6.21 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.02, "volume": 135610549, "typical_volume": 256432528.25, "trend": 6.160333, "fair_value": 4.751346, "relative_strength": -12.013773, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.460073, "energy": 67.59274, "activity_lines": [ 5.302667, 5.685818, 6.067714, 6.136151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.24, "volume": 122421164, "typical_volume": 256994465.25, "trend": 6.162667, "fair_value": 4.751346, "relative_strength": -10.4473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.900837, "energy": 71.419387, "activity_lines": [ 5.191333, 5.571091, 5.980619, 6.076774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }