{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91fa1309-1a19-4fb8-9c01-345f985f7d6b", "symbol": "VOOV", "name": "Vanguard S&P 500 Value Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.539, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.087, "architecture_energy": 68.002, "architecture_maturity": 34.679, "architecture_confidence": 70.882, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.61, "rotation_up": 74.62, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.64, "rotation_down": 11.77, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3938.952035, 3905.029199, 3840.910057, 3792.70174 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3931.840088, "trend_reference": 3741.518815, "distance_from_trend": 0.050867, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3455.140174, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137968, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.880645, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079692, "excess_performance": 0.134359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026204, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028806, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079692, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.322581, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19, "relative_activity": 1.005291, "balance": 2.322581, "dry_up": 2.261905, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009592, "annualized_volatility": 0.12505, "from_high_reference": -0.017536, "from_low_reference": 0.101988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3741.518815, "fair_value_reference": 3455.140174, "structural_low": 3571.377441, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.003934, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.09222, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017161, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.018418, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.193406, "worst_return": -0.071183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024145, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004494, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.275849, "worst_return": -0.045758, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 3931.840088, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 18.9, "trend": 3741.518815, "fair_value": 3455.140174, "relative_strength": 2.880645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.087168, "energy": 68.001992, "activity_lines": [ 3938.952035, 3905.029199, 3840.910057, 3792.70174 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }