{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9201b598-f6ab-4484-b33f-c9228476f085", "symbol": "SJM", "name": "The J. M. Smucker Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.434, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.017, "architecture_energy": 49.542, "architecture_maturity": 75.492, "architecture_confidence": 84.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.76, "rotation_up": 73.97, "upward_expansion": 43.39, "deceleration": 35.67, "rotation_down": 12.0, "downward_expansion": 28.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 1949.266667, 1898.527273, 1906.003337, 1925.020882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1960.0, "trend_reference": 1948.030098, "distance_from_trend": 0.006145, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2583.687763, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.241394, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.538048, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014729, "excess_performance": 0.039938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006145, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.241394, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014441, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02538, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014038, "annualized_volatility": 0.188006, "from_high_reference": -0.015817, "from_low_reference": 0.091375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1948.030098, "fair_value_reference": 2583.687763, "structural_low": 1795.900024, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000276, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012646, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.111949, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056558, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004968, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112563, "worst_return": 0.000553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.113178, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113178, "worst_return": 0.113178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333061, "energy": 88.564155, "activity_lines": [ 1799.0, 1833.98, 1894.904293, 1922.561997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1960.0, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 1950.960164, "fair_value": 2603.396353, "relative_strength": -3.068132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.352155, "energy": 51.068521, "activity_lines": [ 1852.666667, 1849.272727, 1897.461911, 1923.0822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1960.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 1949.983476, "fair_value": 2596.826823, "relative_strength": -2.383734, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.35252, "energy": 32.424702, "activity_lines": [ 1895.6, 1865.118182, 1900.164291, 1923.665415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1960.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 1949.006787, "fair_value": 2590.257293, "relative_strength": -2.842776, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.591123, "energy": 39.744305, "activity_lines": [ 1927.8, 1881.536364, 1903.011433, 1924.311642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1960.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.75, "trend": 1948.030098, "fair_value": 2583.687763, "relative_strength": -2.538048, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.017246, "energy": 49.542231, "activity_lines": [ 1949.266667, 1898.527273, 1906.003337, 1925.020882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }