{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9202c828-7d56-461a-be33-860462fdf60f", "symbol": "DB34", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.038, "architecture_energy": 26.875, "architecture_maturity": 73.674, "architecture_confidence": 95.644, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.54, "rotation_up": 26.55, "upward_expansion": 60.07, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.22, "downward_expansion": 21.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 123.610666, 126.177091, 123.340952, 116.309441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 126.32, "trend_reference": 106.740667, "distance_from_trend": 0.183429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.090321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.828331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.351115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.495265, "excess_performance": 0.321018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.183429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193215, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.828331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.133511, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.495265, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.19533, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 690, "relative_activity": 0.725133, "balance": 2.19533, "dry_up": 0.626084, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06651, "annualized_volatility": 0.339681, "from_high_reference": -0.074172, "from_low_reference": 0.925316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.740667, "fair_value_reference": 69.090321, "structural_low": 84.150002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.010976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003201, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2525, "worst_return": -0.089255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.080855, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.083881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563269, "worst_return": -0.122411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058598, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.6549, "worst_return": -0.104373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124832, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091892, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029768, 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"typical_volume": 1290.4, "trend": 103.841667, "fair_value": 68.088333, "relative_strength": 15.691235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.847269, "energy": 46.551873, "activity_lines": [ 126.297334, 127.839637, 121.639238, 113.925398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1015.3, "trend": 105.225667, "fair_value": 68.565449, "relative_strength": 11.224006, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.556001, "energy": 27.193692, "activity_lines": [ 123.617333, 126.396727, 122.250381, 114.948516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.32, "volume": 690, "typical_volume": 951.55, "trend": 106.740667, "fair_value": 69.090321, "relative_strength": 13.351115, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.038059, "energy": 26.87547, "activity_lines": [ 123.610666, 126.177091, 123.340952, 116.309441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }