{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9202d582-7d51-4256-9e4c-1126bdebef6e", "symbol": "EFG", "name": "iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.261, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.65, "architecture_energy": 30.589, "architecture_maturity": 59.547, "architecture_confidence": 88.956, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 29.39, "upward_expansion": 58.19, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 35.11, "downward_expansion": 21.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 2113.8, 2123.828365, 2109.185044, 2094.196744 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2148.0, "trend_reference": 2081.727555, "distance_from_trend": 0.031835, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1917.873001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119991, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.373928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050367, "excess_performance": 0.105034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031835, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012404, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119991, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046467, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013739, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050367, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.134512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1706, "relative_activity": 0.395658, "balance": 7.134512, "dry_up": 0.339939, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016645, "annualized_volatility": 0.153624, "from_high_reference": -0.014557, "from_low_reference": 0.101053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2081.727555, "fair_value_reference": 1917.873001, "structural_low": 1950.859985, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.015224, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.130591, "worst_return": -0.16058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.000403, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016055, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.109612, "worst_return": -0.188859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014877, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0604, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.244791, "worst_return": -0.160175, 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.512113, "energy": 37.47452, "activity_lines": [ 2121.2, 2126.862575, 2101.885107, 2089.957224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2082.0, "volume": 99, "typical_volume": 4306.9, "trend": 2082.785221, "fair_value": 1914.278782, "relative_strength": -1.902665, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.668827, "energy": 25.985143, "activity_lines": [ 2104.4, 2119.495233, 2102.495457, 2089.989339 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2148.0, "volume": 1706, "typical_volume": 4311.8, "trend": 2081.727555, "fair_value": 1917.873001, "relative_strength": 1.373928, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.650312, "energy": 30.589016, "activity_lines": [ 2113.8, 2123.828365, 2109.185044, 2094.196744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }