{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92094181-3cfe-435c-b9ca-16fde2c6a32e", "symbol": "HASI", "name": "Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.428, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.493, "architecture_energy": 20.596, "architecture_maturity": 30.428, "architecture_confidence": 63.176, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.49, "rotation_up": 40.36, "upward_expansion": 56.88, "deceleration": 63.57, "rotation_down": 23.7, "downward_expansion": 18.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.976667, 38.694676, 39.090291, 38.739271 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.68, "trend_reference": 37.968101, "distance_from_trend": 0.071426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.103262, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.447519, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.370741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138829, "excess_performance": 0.013204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071426, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058342, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.447519, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053707, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879374, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5478170, "relative_activity": 1.164551, "balance": 0.879374, "dry_up": 0.945108, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050828, "annualized_volatility": 0.250448, "from_high_reference": -0.067938, "from_low_reference": 0.666709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.968101, "fair_value_reference": 28.103262, "structural_low": 34.574043, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043397, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.021458, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162349, "worst_return": -0.100772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118622, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.072583, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.205133, "worst_return": 0.002054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.298687, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.193079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.432711, "worst_return": -0.364796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"close": 37.82, "volume": 3780484, "typical_volume": 4760482.0, "trend": 37.071766, "fair_value": 27.663925, "relative_strength": 2.04264, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.850117, "energy": 9.026596, "activity_lines": [ 38.313773, 38.714967, 39.041081, 38.367649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.42, "volume": 3612601, "typical_volume": 4703954.7, "trend": 37.292161, "fair_value": 27.75727, "relative_strength": 4.864981, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.942358, "energy": 9.728816, "activity_lines": [ 38.338748, 38.572776, 39.032471, 38.454632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.37, "volume": 4244401, "typical_volume": 4747836.8, "trend": 37.50113, "fair_value": 27.861564, "relative_strength": 4.966985, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.129439, "energy": 10.552036, "activity_lines": [ 38.310344, 38.461114, 39.008083, 38.52417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.87, "volume": 4448372, "typical_volume": 4744175.6, "trend": 37.714806, "fair_value": 27.971201, "relative_strength": 2.060442, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.337192, "energy": 10.696685, "activity_lines": [ 38.132667, 38.301587, 38.922189, 38.547968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.68, "volume": 5478170, "typical_volume": 4704105.9, "trend": 37.968101, "fair_value": 28.103262, "relative_strength": 5.370741, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.493097, "energy": 20.59575, "activity_lines": [ 38.976667, 38.694676, 39.090291, 38.739271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }