{ "ticker": { "uuid": "920dcdfe-84f4-415a-b907-a678dcd1a80c", "symbol": "H02", "name": "Haw Par Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.059, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.684, "architecture_energy": 17.81, "architecture_maturity": 11.796, "architecture_confidence": 77.174, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.13, "rotation_up": 24.65, "upward_expansion": 16.68, "deceleration": 51.45, "rotation_down": 39.37, "downward_expansion": 62.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.169334, 16.156909, 16.275347, 16.319183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.030001, "trend_reference": 16.360272, "distance_from_trend": -0.020187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.57201, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.385239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.024704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031213, "excess_performance": -0.186049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.385239, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.136635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 884100, "relative_activity": 0.631232, "balance": 0.136635, "dry_up": 0.663557, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036518, "annualized_volatility": 0.266217, "from_high_reference": -0.112343, "from_low_reference": 0.180287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.360272, "fair_value_reference": 11.57201, "structural_low": 14.530058, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.003812, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.037155, "worst_return": -0.063927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001048, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000272, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.046431, "worst_return": -0.121461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045334, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007431, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081227, "worst_return": -0.165665, 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"activity_lines": [ 15.942667, 16.054382, 16.323017, 16.332018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 1062500, "typical_volume": 1986420.0, "trend": 16.296135, "fair_value": 11.36179, "relative_strength": -7.164838, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.472942, "energy": 5.603719, "activity_lines": [ 16.207334, 16.128364, 16.355681, 16.360764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.389999, "volume": 1112700, "typical_volume": 1937575.0, "trend": 16.329139, "fair_value": 11.417526, "relative_strength": -9.56823, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.32942, "energy": 5.669855, "activity_lines": [ 16.288, 16.151636, 16.359644, 16.36682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.17, "volume": 666900, "typical_volume": 1807395.0, "trend": 16.346572, "fair_value": 11.469718, "relative_strength": -11.993049, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.715356, "energy": 8.64047, "activity_lines": [ 16.280667, 16.154909, 16.343211, 16.356553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.1, "volume": 1053800, "typical_volume": 1770015.0, "trend": 16.362661, "fair_value": 11.521942, "relative_strength": -12.792935, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.098658, "energy": 19.336751, "activity_lines": [ 16.245333, 16.157091, 16.315833, 16.340645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.030001, "volume": 884100, "typical_volume": 1400595.0, "trend": 16.360272, "fair_value": 11.57201, "relative_strength": -14.024704, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.684405, "energy": 17.809998, "activity_lines": [ 16.169334, 16.156909, 16.275347, 16.319183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }