{ "ticker": { "uuid": "920f21ba-6503-4a7e-8580-046414dffadd", "symbol": "RUM", "name": "Rumble Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.609, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.343, "architecture_energy": 24.948, "architecture_maturity": 5.277, "architecture_confidence": 61.208, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.71, "rotation_up": 17.98, "upward_expansion": 17.46, "deceleration": 56.81, "rotation_down": 56.6, "downward_expansion": 47.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.004333, 6.168182, 6.649714, 6.492452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.385, "trend_reference": 6.284667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015965, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.988494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.212112, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104671, "excess_performance": -0.082782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015965, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002196, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104671, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.539544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9632132, "relative_activity": 0.655005, "balance": 0.539544, "dry_up": 0.719788, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204001, "annualized_volatility": 0.709536, "from_high_reference": -0.394213, "from_low_reference": 0.382124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.284667, "fair_value_reference": 6.988494, "structural_low": 4.6197, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027672, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089998, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.140351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030631, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.07669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240741, "worst_return": -0.435088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.132275, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.298029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.744144, "worst_return": -0.293567, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.26506, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068783, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.143174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.006859, "active": false }, { 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13.292748, "energy": 17.8489, "activity_lines": [ 6.408667, 6.977636, 6.871619, 6.598817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.76, "volume": 11817527, "typical_volume": 14829335.7, "trend": 6.346833, "fair_value": 7.033205, "relative_strength": -23.227147, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.274846, "energy": 24.97131, "activity_lines": [ 6.12, 6.686273, 6.80431, 6.558505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.71, "volume": 9766093, "typical_volume": 14534023.65, "trend": 6.314833, "fair_value": 7.015, "relative_strength": -21.478202, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.808734, "energy": 27.068457, "activity_lines": [ 5.908, 6.432364, 6.730571, 6.517419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.84, "volume": 11123405, "typical_volume": 14578864.6, "trend": 6.297167, "fair_value": 7.000256, "relative_strength": -19.235446, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.350261, "energy": 32.287464, "activity_lines": [ 5.849333, 6.229273, 6.665405, 6.486785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.385, "volume": 9632132, "typical_volume": 14705429.35, "trend": 6.284667, "fair_value": 6.988494, "relative_strength": -15.212112, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.342838, "energy": 24.947658, "activity_lines": [ 6.004333, 6.168182, 6.649714, 6.492452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }