{ "ticker": { "uuid": "920f9e6d-ed2a-4ddf-a0dc-d039d75376d0", "symbol": "IGEO", "name": "IA Clarington Loomis Global Equity Opportunities Fund ETF Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.14, "architecture_energy": 68.769, "architecture_maturity": 80.265, "architecture_confidence": 77.231, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.38, "rotation_up": 58.69, "upward_expansion": 84.96, "deceleration": 68.4, "rotation_down": 27.93, "downward_expansion": 11.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.984666, 17.917818, 17.611333, 17.273269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.49, "trend_reference": 16.911333, "distance_from_trend": 0.09335, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.405657, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.583177, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.146311, "excess_performance": 0.02589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065992, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005832, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028909, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146311, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.01571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 920, "relative_activity": 0.493218, "balance": 5.01571, "dry_up": 0.31188, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018056, "annualized_volatility": 0.145562, "from_high_reference": -0.003771, "from_low_reference": 0.249324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.911333, "fair_value_reference": 15.405657, "structural_low": 15.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023187, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002717, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024985, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.046373, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006985, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.046373, "worst_return": 0.046373, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099287, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 13.65, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 14.02, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.978431, "energy": 89.834714, "activity_lines": [ 17.914, 17.664909, 17.249095, 16.971634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.0, "volume": 960, "typical_volume": 1938.15, "trend": 16.737667, "fair_value": 15.327396, "relative_strength": 0.596039, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.861836, "energy": 87.588744, "activity_lines": [ 17.984, 17.761272, 17.357571, 17.057871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.639999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1896.55, "trend": 16.8, "fair_value": 15.351237, "relative_strength": -1.569716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.545891, "energy": 66.704305, "activity_lines": [ 17.888, 17.775636, 17.424143, 17.116086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.6, "volume": 347, "typical_volume": 1883.9, "trend": 16.853667, "fair_value": 15.374184, "relative_strength": -1.21666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.301444, "energy": 58.517978, "activity_lines": [ 17.786666, 17.770545, 17.479809, 17.167699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.49, "volume": 920, "typical_volume": 1865.3, "trend": 16.911333, "fair_value": 15.405657, "relative_strength": 0.583177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.139583, "energy": 68.769034, "activity_lines": [ 17.984666, 17.917818, 17.611333, 17.273269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }