{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92167282-9804-4acb-a36d-1c0389131bb2", "symbol": "VALE3", "name": "Vale S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 58.4, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.501, "architecture_energy": 64.865, "architecture_maturity": 12.054, "architecture_confidence": 81.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.16, "rotation_up": 13.94, "upward_expansion": 14.15, "deceleration": 39.61, "rotation_down": 65.46, "downward_expansion": 87.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.05, 75.998, 78.381381, 79.601441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 74.970001, "trend_reference": 81.108333, "distance_from_trend": -0.075681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.890996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.769293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.124489, "excess_performance": -0.067441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039858, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007693, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93504200, "relative_activity": 1.353562, "balance": 0.703713, "dry_up": 1.098834, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044705, "annualized_volatility": 0.276893, "from_high_reference": -0.181729, "from_low_reference": 0.492523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.108333, "fair_value_reference": 58.890996, "structural_low": 71.57, 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"energy": 59.259591, "activity_lines": [ 77.425333, 78.885635, 80.57219, 81.173634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.940002, "volume": 72955300, "typical_volume": 75840785.0, "trend": 80.899333, "fair_value": 58.418862, "relative_strength": -1.91218, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.63764, "energy": 79.348133, "activity_lines": [ 75.666, 77.601818, 79.775381, 80.664624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.239998, "volume": 68175900, "typical_volume": 72498385.0, "trend": 80.97, "fair_value": 58.571031, "relative_strength": 0.766725, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.611062, "energy": 72.305631, "activity_lines": [ 75.088666, 76.87909, 79.271571, 80.299505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.28, "volume": 68994900, "typical_volume": 70339765.0, "trend": 81.1, "fair_value": 58.730208, "relative_strength": -0.361385, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.091026, "energy": 72.542267, "activity_lines": [ 75.225333, 76.495636, 78.884047, 79.996925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.970001, "volume": 93504200, "typical_volume": 69080090.0, "trend": 81.108333, "fair_value": 58.890996, "relative_strength": 0.769293, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.501313, "energy": 64.864767, "activity_lines": [ 75.05, 75.998, 78.381381, 79.601441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }