{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9218a484-f783-49e0-b716-586f396f48b4", "symbol": "WC8", "name": "Wildcat Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.038, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.332, "architecture_energy": 64.495, "architecture_maturity": 16.159, "architecture_confidence": 73.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.48, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 29.53, "deceleration": 49.07, "rotation_down": 71.05, "downward_expansion": 56.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.371, 0.418, 0.468024, 0.464247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.385, "trend_reference": 0.454, "distance_from_trend": -0.151982, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.369327, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.688994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166667, "excess_performance": 0.102961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151982, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116851, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.792443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.178052, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.274158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27826756, "relative_activity": 1.33035, "balance": 0.274158, "dry_up": 0.936594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177323, "annualized_volatility": 0.824948, "from_high_reference": -0.425373, "from_low_reference": 1.40625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.454, "fair_value_reference": 0.369327, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002572, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.152778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009259, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.117647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.092042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.208333, "worst_return": -0.537037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.331972, 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"2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.257732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.342857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.902439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.289474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.371681, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149254, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.24, "volume": 44964254, "typical_volume": 25246769.15, "trend": 0.082833, "fair_value": 0.042971, "relative_strength": 297.758472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.88711, "energy": 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0.4905, 0.476505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.335, "volume": 12758692, "typical_volume": 20605071.3, "trend": 0.454333, "fair_value": 0.368269, "relative_strength": -9.951659, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.696148, "energy": 67.960442, "activity_lines": [ 0.380333, 0.432909, 0.47681, 0.46872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.385, "volume": 27826756, "typical_volume": 20916865.55, "trend": 0.454, "fair_value": 0.369327, "relative_strength": -0.688994, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.33248, "energy": 64.494685, "activity_lines": [ 0.371, 0.418, 0.468024, 0.464247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }