{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9219db8f-6767-4de7-b499-02ca505b4a5f", "symbol": "RAJTV", "name": "Raj Television Network Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.481, "architecture_energy": 73.506, "architecture_maturity": 97.631, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.29, "rotation_down": 65.49, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.112667, 11.571091, 14.483286, 18.999118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.11, "trend_reference": 25.35, "distance_from_trend": -0.601183, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.32891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.813911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.074963, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.753415, "excess_performance": -0.709706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.601183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.813911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.68075, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294803, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.753415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.071764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 765451, "relative_activity": 1.774175, "balance": 0.071764, "dry_up": 0.718423, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165792, "annualized_volatility": 0.745668, "from_high_reference": -0.784435, "from_low_reference": 0.018127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.35, "fair_value_reference": 54.32891, "structural_low": 9.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016905, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.008799, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.308099, "worst_return": -0.393777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049954, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.020414, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.66134, "worst_return": -0.652663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.207534, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.124332, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.717271, "worst_return": -0.593921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 12.086, 12.941455, 17.317333, 22.171613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.67, "volume": 95416, "typical_volume": 381808.45, "trend": 27.439667, "fair_value": 54.758846, "relative_strength": -63.345247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.135643, "energy": 90.136826, "activity_lines": [ 11.908667, 12.428727, 16.307238, 21.090624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.32, "volume": 277914, "typical_volume": 395112.6, "trend": 26.408667, "fair_value": 54.545513, "relative_strength": -64.701145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.660489, "energy": 90.298163, "activity_lines": [ 11.668, 12.025818, 15.387381, 20.050645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.11, "volume": 765451, "typical_volume": 431440.5, "trend": 25.35, "fair_value": 54.32891, "relative_strength": -68.074963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.480732, "energy": 73.505629, "activity_lines": [ 11.112667, 11.571091, 14.483286, 18.999118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }