{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92288d4e-5853-4e6b-a8c6-4fcccd5f8dde", "symbol": "600406", "name": "NARI Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.67, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.023, "architecture_energy": 23.522, "architecture_maturity": 66.146, "architecture_confidence": 63.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.58, "rotation_up": 29.74, "upward_expansion": 19.86, "deceleration": 46.9, "rotation_down": 26.48, "downward_expansion": 58.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.677334, 23.207451, 23.729203, 24.464859 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.120001, "trend_reference": 25.107289, "distance_from_trend": -0.039323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.092266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.861873, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042857, "excess_performance": 0.000347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002394, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008619, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021783, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.067904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 373114282, "relative_activity": 1.108532, "balance": 1.067904, "dry_up": 1.122931, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058473, "annualized_volatility": 0.262112, "from_high_reference": -0.247661, "from_low_reference": 0.151674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.107289, "fair_value_reference": 23.092266, "structural_low": 21.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020128, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.010783, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.206311, "worst_return": -0.071654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082043, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037479, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.146467, "worst_return": -0.016566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.149202, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.062146, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174207, "worst_return": -0.02677, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 23.062956, "relative_strength": -2.778836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.057916, "energy": 67.264549, "activity_lines": [ 22.32858, 22.733725, 23.98047, 24.656979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.58, "volume": 581534551, "typical_volume": 366885522.85, "trend": 24.999955, "fair_value": 23.071324, "relative_strength": 1.937242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.996836, "energy": 46.261526, "activity_lines": [ 22.72256, 22.777811, 23.827, 24.566961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.35, "volume": 302285716, "typical_volume": 340799491.3, "trend": 25.052622, "fair_value": 23.083839, "relative_strength": 4.69978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.464829, "energy": 31.853187, "activity_lines": [ 23.307334, 23.004852, 23.777483, 24.525028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.120001, "volume": 373114282, "typical_volume": 336584083.8, "trend": 25.107289, "fair_value": 23.092266, "relative_strength": 0.861873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.022939, "energy": 23.52248, "activity_lines": [ 23.677334, 23.207451, 23.729203, 24.464859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }