{ "ticker": { "uuid": "922ade0d-3f08-4eae-885a-ce5b0bb829ed", "symbol": "600280", "name": "Nanjing Central Emporium (Group) Stocks Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.051, "architecture_energy": 30.6, "architecture_maturity": 70.986, "architecture_confidence": 71.64, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.91, "rotation_up": 24.18, "upward_expansion": 7.95, "deceleration": 60.51, "rotation_down": 41.66, "downward_expansion": 69.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.767333, 2.774545, 2.883476, 3.000903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.88, "trend_reference": 3.218333, "distance_from_trend": -0.105127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.422115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.513388, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.229947, "excess_performance": -0.186743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105127, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158415, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145134, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144219102, "relative_activity": 1.014039, "balance": 0.968849, "dry_up": 1.846549, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128205, "annualized_volatility": 0.485715, "from_high_reference": -0.465677, "from_low_reference": 0.190083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.218333, "fair_value_reference": 3.422115, "structural_low": 2.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.012605, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.026895, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 1.038314, "worst_return": -0.113269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014785, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.425287, "worst_return": -0.153061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016756, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.559184, "worst_return": -0.109272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 69.158165, "activity_lines": [ 2.746667, 2.879818, 2.989238, 3.149484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.92, "volume": 307084401, "typical_volume": 121453478.0, "trend": 3.388, "fair_value": 3.434423, "relative_strength": -10.981792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.918284, "energy": 51.576582, "activity_lines": [ 2.792667, 2.873273, 2.971905, 3.117011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 335861862, "typical_volume": 130471180.55, "trend": 3.301, "fair_value": 3.433654, "relative_strength": -24.510336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.393726, "energy": 49.32115, "activity_lines": [ 2.696, 2.792909, 2.916905, 3.059075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.77, "volume": 263317990, "typical_volume": 139431384.55, "trend": 3.250667, "fair_value": 3.433141, "relative_strength": -15.921837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.887753, "energy": 38.442221, "activity_lines": [ 2.718667, 2.772545, 2.893429, 3.024817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.88, "volume": 144219102, "typical_volume": 142222504.55, "trend": 3.218333, "fair_value": 3.422115, "relative_strength": -14.513388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.051244, "energy": 30.600008, "activity_lines": [ 2.767333, 2.774545, 2.883476, 3.000903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }