{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92339caf-df8e-4599-a22f-fa81f3511347", "symbol": "4770", "name": "Allied Supreme Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.183, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.554, "architecture_energy": 16.277, "architecture_maturity": 60.267, "architecture_confidence": 85.868, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.91, "rotation_up": 22.25, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 37.4, "rotation_down": 37.91, "downward_expansion": 62.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 218.066667, 217.6, 221.228571, 223.211504 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 218.5, "trend_reference": 225.677749, "distance_from_trend": -0.031805, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 283.254836, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.57477, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061678, "excess_performance": -0.50305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22861, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.355748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026761, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.316708, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1424037, "relative_activity": 0.598934, "balance": 1.316708, "dry_up": 0.689096, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087309, "annualized_volatility": 0.406296, "from_high_reference": -0.348614, "from_low_reference": 0.104315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 225.677749, "fair_value_reference": 283.254836, "structural_low": 206.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.013241, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00558, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.218487, "worst_return": -0.094891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01255, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 3.2e-05, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.084034, "worst_return": -0.127273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053922, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.075397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100365, "worst_return": -0.241558, 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"trend": 226.669511, "fair_value": 284.085561, "relative_strength": -35.087777, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.062465, "energy": 22.574654, "activity_lines": [ 218.633333, 218.718182, 222.358342, 224.372024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.5, "volume": 926949, "typical_volume": 2440574.65, "trend": 226.31855, "fair_value": 283.649171, "relative_strength": -35.166004, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.959062, "energy": 18.606008, "activity_lines": [ 217.9, 217.627273, 221.689354, 223.715927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 218.5, "volume": 1424037, "typical_volume": 2377618.0, "trend": 225.677749, "fair_value": 283.254836, "relative_strength": -35.57477, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.553759, "energy": 16.276983, "activity_lines": [ 218.066667, 217.6, 221.228571, 223.211504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }