{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9245f5ef-fcf2-4ad1-8594-7c6b2f865866", "symbol": "MAH", "name": "Macmahon Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.762, "architecture_energy": 38.581, "architecture_maturity": 41.605, "architecture_confidence": 72.088, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.41, "rotation_up": 46.93, "upward_expansion": 75.38, "deceleration": 67.97, "rotation_down": 23.51, "downward_expansion": 4.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.943333, 0.930636, 0.908024, 0.863827 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.995, "trend_reference": 0.804349, "distance_from_trend": 0.237025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.38964, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.553641, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 39.940642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.590171, "excess_performance": 0.526465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.237025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.553641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153901, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.399406, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.590171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.912345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22559533, "relative_activity": 1.18009, "balance": 1.912345, "dry_up": 0.979854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099536, "annualized_volatility": 0.59128, "from_high_reference": -0.070093, "from_low_reference": 1.950202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.804349, "fair_value_reference": 0.38964, "structural_low": 0.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.070493, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.050725, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.349206, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.146629, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.093291, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.501298, "worst_return": -0.228572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002532, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.701469, "worst_return": -0.083546, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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47.276803, "energy": 37.252765, "activity_lines": [ 0.916333, 0.920091, 0.870654, 0.824851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.86, "volume": 14885196, "typical_volume": 22174192.05, "trend": 0.776182, "fair_value": 0.373822, "relative_strength": 34.482159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.236706, "energy": 25.685983, "activity_lines": [ 0.895, 0.911727, 0.874652, 0.830742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.95, "volume": 19994222, "typical_volume": 21850336.85, "trend": 0.786006, "fair_value": 0.379118, "relative_strength": 46.073277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.951747, "energy": 26.752795, "activity_lines": [ 0.907667, 0.918182, 0.886622, 0.841956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.925, "volume": 17487666, "typical_volume": 21487041.95, "trend": 0.794996, "fair_value": 0.384169, "relative_strength": 36.560645, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.813785, "energy": 26.560752, "activity_lines": [ 0.912667, 0.918545, 0.89469, 0.850923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.995, "volume": 22559533, "typical_volume": 19116783.2, "trend": 0.804349, "fair_value": 0.38964, "relative_strength": 39.940642, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.762349, "energy": 38.581205, "activity_lines": [ 0.943333, 0.930636, 0.908024, 0.863827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }