{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92475e01-f022-4c1d-9383-800bf41eee30", "symbol": "ITPS", "name": "iShares $ TIPS UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 82.148, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.196, "architecture_energy": 47.16, "architecture_maturity": 10.299, "architecture_confidence": 65.433, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.28, "rotation_up": 17.63, "upward_expansion": 17.41, "deceleration": 44.5, "rotation_down": 64.73, "downward_expansion": 59.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 256.660669, 257.127272, 257.518429, 257.519076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 256.380005, "trend_reference": 257.343001, "distance_from_trend": -0.003742, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 244.323077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.978848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001837, "excess_performance": -0.081047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02366, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08531, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001837, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3310, "relative_activity": 0.863925, "balance": 0.932342, "dry_up": 0.616689, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005104, "annualized_volatility": 0.037392, "from_high_reference": -0.016835, "from_low_reference": 0.022004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 257.343001, "fair_value_reference": 244.323077, "structural_low": 253.899994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005022, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027771, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.035833, "worst_return": -0.042726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020745, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035233, "worst_return": -0.076405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017032, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056815, "worst_return": 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258.015995, 258.037818, 257.905382, 257.622474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 257.48999, "volume": 520, "typical_volume": 4975.4, "trend": 257.129, "fair_value": 243.622436, "relative_strength": -8.761983, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.01484, "energy": 11.981836, "activity_lines": [ 257.844659, 257.919634, 257.873952, 257.651635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 257.48999, "volume": 993, "typical_volume": 4328.3, "trend": 257.220666, "fair_value": 243.787948, "relative_strength": -9.198594, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.832759, "energy": 6.768713, "activity_lines": [ 257.686658, 257.821632, 257.843666, 257.674924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 256.5, "volume": 3702, "typical_volume": 4435.65, "trend": 257.288, "fair_value": 243.956346, "relative_strength": -9.180656, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.93037, "energy": 18.651596, "activity_lines": [ 257.27266, 257.584359, 257.730285, 257.62843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 256.51001, "volume": 1446, "typical_volume": 4344.1, "trend": 257.297001, "fair_value": 244.143846, "relative_strength": -9.004351, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.701229, "energy": 32.427857, "activity_lines": [ 256.917999, 257.367089, 257.627381, 257.578237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 256.380005, "volume": 3310, "typical_volume": 3831.35, "trend": 257.343001, "fair_value": 244.323077, "relative_strength": -9.978848, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.195945, "energy": 47.160202, "activity_lines": [ 256.660669, 257.127272, 257.518429, 257.519076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }