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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.673, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.161, "architecture_energy": 15.377, "architecture_maturity": 38.471, "architecture_confidence": 47.606, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.35, "rotation_up": 37.1, "upward_expansion": 65.26, "deceleration": 61.77, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 17.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.289332, 104.972908, 103.421667, 102.770735 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 98.589996, "trend_reference": 101.28134, "distance_from_trend": -0.026573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.375758, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.469699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041443, "excess_performance": 0.098492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052683, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109133, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041443, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.08143, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120, "relative_activity": 0.140515, "balance": 0.08143, "dry_up": 0.230972, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0502, "annualized_volatility": 0.26562, "from_high_reference": -0.146481, "from_low_reference": 0.238982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.28134, "fair_value_reference": 83.375758, "structural_low": 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99.476915, "fair_value": 82.342906, "relative_strength": 2.390412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.737684, "energy": 69.332058, "activity_lines": [ 105.641333, 103.197113, 102.280756, 101.371182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.32, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 1136.1, "trend": 100.161277, "fair_value": 82.632163, "relative_strength": 8.965447, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.12259, "energy": 83.43623, "activity_lines": [ 108.284, 104.888357, 103.166558, 102.135252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 112.309998, "volume": 606, "typical_volume": 1144.6, "trend": 100.839765, "fair_value": 82.927767, "relative_strength": 10.145997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.739399, "energy": 87.15039, "activity_lines": [ 110.235332, 106.53458, 104.080117, 102.919041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.080002, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 1100.05, "trend": 101.128966, "fair_value": 83.143618, "relative_strength": -2.519223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.039804, "energy": 51.678479, "activity_lines": [ 107.563333, 105.988545, 103.864796, 102.93454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.589996, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": 854.0, "trend": 101.28134, "fair_value": 83.375758, "relative_strength": -1.469699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.161221, "energy": 15.37678, "activity_lines": [ 104.289332, 104.972908, 103.421667, 102.770735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }