{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92578a45-ebc3-43f6-818c-5f2a287fc4a1", "symbol": "300481", "name": "Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.075, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.261, "architecture_energy": 47.55, "architecture_maturity": 12.824, "architecture_confidence": 65.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.32, "rotation_up": 10.87, "upward_expansion": 6.97, "deceleration": 47.87, "rotation_down": 69.4, "downward_expansion": 75.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.701333, 15.063091, 15.308324, 15.534536 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.1, "trend_reference": 15.904746, "distance_from_trend": -0.113472, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.699066, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.379419, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.198738, "excess_performance": -0.206137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113472, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001692, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040755, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093985, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198738, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57371541, "relative_activity": 1.027005, "balance": 1.125571, "dry_up": 1.222809, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153048, "annualized_volatility": 0.570798, "from_high_reference": -0.314869, "from_low_reference": 0.17207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.904746, "fair_value_reference": 14.699066, "structural_low": 12.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.00329, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.004217, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.227869, "worst_return": -0.241911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.051768, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.005702, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.940898, "worst_return": -0.198571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071462, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.078373, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.299764, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 55537596.85, "trend": 16.104793, "fair_value": 14.803768, "relative_strength": -13.324314, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.847929, "energy": 14.301259, "activity_lines": [ 16.466, 16.495906, 15.971694, 16.054514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.75, "volume": 70958631, "typical_volume": 56634553.75, "trend": 16.0202, "fair_value": 14.766586, "relative_strength": -18.652494, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.421568, "energy": 33.076886, "activity_lines": [ 14.976666, 15.872909, 15.671044, 15.838076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.16, "volume": 50591136, "typical_volume": 55095255.6, "trend": 15.944668, "fair_value": 14.726707, "relative_strength": -14.317385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.867137, "energy": 47.769322, "activity_lines": [ 14.016667, 15.360909, 15.433934, 15.653547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.1, "volume": 57371541, "typical_volume": 55862952.25, "trend": 15.904746, "fair_value": 14.699066, "relative_strength": -12.379419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.260617, "energy": 47.550238, "activity_lines": [ 13.701333, 15.063091, 15.308324, 15.534536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }