{ "ticker": { "uuid": "925ce92d-5885-492e-b978-8c7219261600", "symbol": "6015", "name": "Horizon Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.209, "architecture_energy": 15.026, "architecture_maturity": 56.899, "architecture_confidence": 80.005, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.81, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 45.11, "deceleration": 86.75, "rotation_down": 36.96, "downward_expansion": 27.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.953334, 16.488182, 16.827985, 16.138083 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.450001, "trend_reference": 15.183809, "distance_from_trend": 0.083391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.287918, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.45731, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.804354, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.344554, "excess_performance": -0.096818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083391, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.45731, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072302, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078044, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.344554, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.217194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11637331, "relative_activity": 0.628659, "balance": 1.217194, "dry_up": 0.475641, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137713, "annualized_volatility": 0.61459, "from_high_reference": -0.314583, "from_low_reference": 0.664375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.183809, "fair_value_reference": 11.287918, "structural_low": 11.898692, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.056075, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.042675, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.251332, "worst_return": -0.133144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030837, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.10591, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.367555, "worst_return": -0.28125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044244, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.143598, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.233945, "worst_return": -0.294643, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.662236, "energy": 20.894846, "activity_lines": [ 17.32, 17.917273, 16.820557, 15.848929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 6121247, "typical_volume": 18545290.5, "trend": 14.69932, "fair_value": 11.20429, "relative_strength": -5.934294, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.870038, "energy": 20.363147, "activity_lines": [ 16.87, 17.615455, 16.872074, 15.958196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.65, "volume": 10852396, "typical_volume": 18505054.05, "trend": 14.873942, "fair_value": 11.235613, "relative_strength": -7.627993, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.625744, "energy": 17.96736, "activity_lines": [ 16.38, 17.188182, 16.855526, 16.01953 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.3, "volume": 6608052, "typical_volume": 18214316.35, "trend": 15.038496, "fair_value": 11.25808, "relative_strength": -11.544561, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.377223, "energy": 14.352167, "activity_lines": [ 15.89, 16.697273, 16.791893, 16.047018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 11637331, "typical_volume": 18511350.25, "trend": 15.183809, "fair_value": 11.287918, "relative_strength": -7.804354, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.208656, "energy": 15.025766, "activity_lines": [ 15.953334, 16.488182, 16.827985, 16.138083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }