{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9260dac7-881a-4ab0-b694-f536bf575b39", "symbol": "688677", "name": "Qingdao NovelBeam Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.368, "architecture_energy": 51.149, "architecture_maturity": 6.046, "architecture_confidence": 59.429, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.56, "rotation_up": 14.16, "upward_expansion": 24.76, "deceleration": 52.22, "rotation_down": 67.75, "downward_expansion": 52.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.504665, 83.626584, 97.464291, 91.043024 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 75.949997, "trend_reference": 79.995784, "distance_from_trend": -0.050575, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.74477, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.526794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.698829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.602997, "excess_performance": 0.646201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.25249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.526794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.12561, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.166988, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.095964, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.602997, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.435907, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27914325, "relative_activity": 1.12411, "balance": 1.435907, "dry_up": 1.137308, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.262462, "annualized_volatility": 1.077307, "from_high_reference": -0.553701, "from_low_reference": 1.109136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.995784, "fair_value_reference": 49.74477, "structural_low": 36.009998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074336, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.02508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203899, "worst_return": -0.077367, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083847, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00074, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.68555, "worst_return": -0.304509, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.216008, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.136188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.029194, "worst_return": -0.359805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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49.481686, "relative_strength": 17.381568, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.901148, "energy": 30.90174, "activity_lines": [ 80.924, 95.601389, 101.75704, 91.852696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.449997, "volume": 31934016, "typical_volume": 23721233.7, "trend": 78.902784, "fair_value": 49.585671, "relative_strength": 9.06416, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.468759, "energy": 41.996854, "activity_lines": [ 74.810666, 88.315069, 99.322213, 91.233527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.949997, "volume": 27914325, "typical_volume": 24832385.9, "trend": 79.995784, "fair_value": 49.74477, "relative_strength": 16.698829, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.36752, "energy": 51.148988, "activity_lines": [ 73.504665, 83.626584, 97.464291, 91.043024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }