{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92630565-e6da-4f59-9e82-0407343447cb", "symbol": "MVIR", "name": "Medivir AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.086, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.566, "architecture_energy": 7.841, "architecture_maturity": 15.459, "architecture_confidence": 45.654, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.96, "rotation_up": 33.68, "upward_expansion": 47.17, "deceleration": 59.33, "rotation_down": 14.93, "downward_expansion": 25.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.7724, 1.749345, 1.806095, 1.821856 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.683133, "distance_from_trend": 0.081317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.444313, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.255415, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.690831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.25, "excess_performance": 2.188506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.34825, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.255415, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12196, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.186908, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05902, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.25, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.000993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5511513, "relative_activity": 0.476739, "balance": 1.000993, "dry_up": 0.472351, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118216, "annualized_volatility": 1.348042, "from_high_reference": -0.369151, "from_low_reference": 4.352941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.683133, "fair_value_reference": 2.444313, "structural_low": 0.558, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.023486, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.005963, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.202381, "worst_return": -0.39243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041571, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030018, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.171642, "worst_return": -0.58194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.124052, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016805, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.184906, "worst_return": -0.462254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.242685, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.337897, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.053571, "worst_return": -0.462915, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207358, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045631, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019487, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.250787, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058601, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", 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1.877619, 1.774516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.658, "volume": 5289137, "typical_volume": 22415153.65, "trend": 1.547667, "fair_value": 2.524944, "relative_strength": 10.61337, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.790635, "energy": 8.527154, "activity_lines": [ 1.7116, 1.74, 1.850452, 1.784383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.718, "volume": 5465592, "typical_volume": 21289558.15, "trend": 1.5921, "fair_value": 2.498039, "relative_strength": 13.87681, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.601636, "energy": 8.349861, "activity_lines": [ 1.716533, 1.726982, 1.828743, 1.795372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 5576927, "typical_volume": 14590758.85, "trend": 1.6374, "fair_value": 2.471373, "relative_strength": 19.934287, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.073251, "energy": 11.571953, "activity_lines": [ 1.749067, 1.737527, 1.815967, 1.810075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 5511513, "typical_volume": 11560867.1, "trend": 1.683133, "fair_value": 2.444313, "relative_strength": 18.690831, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.566345, "energy": 7.841419, "activity_lines": [ 1.7724, 1.749345, 1.806095, 1.821856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }