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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.388, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.442, "architecture_energy": 30.167, "architecture_maturity": 83.334, "architecture_confidence": 78.192, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.86, "rotation_up": 34.8, "upward_expansion": 63.32, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 26.1, "downward_expansion": 15.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 136.233333, 138.458137, 130.416849, 120.415787 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 129.5, "trend_reference": 108.578061, "distance_from_trend": 0.19269, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.348843, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316741, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.542216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.509252, "excess_performance": 0.06788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.19269, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157666, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316741, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277862, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191333, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.509252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.952828, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6523637, "relative_activity": 0.802496, "balance": 2.952828, "dry_up": 1.408134, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147503, "annualized_volatility": 0.495134, "from_high_reference": -0.200617, "from_low_reference": 0.601434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.578061, "fair_value_reference": 98.348843, "structural_low": 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"activity_lines": [ 140.333333, 139.929552, 129.221362, 118.980346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 129.5, "volume": 6523637, "typical_volume": 8129187.55, "trend": 108.578061, "fair_value": 98.348843, "relative_strength": -11.542216, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.441784, "energy": 30.16682, "activity_lines": [ 136.233333, 138.458137, 130.416849, 120.415787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }