{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9275deef-cd2b-448f-8dee-fecfcf24010b", "symbol": "ALTERNAB", "name": "Alterna Asesor\u00eda Internacional, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.425, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.403, "architecture_energy": 57.42, "architecture_maturity": 62.127, "architecture_confidence": 80.237, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.02, "rotation_up": 66.8, "upward_expansion": 86.83, "deceleration": 65.72, "rotation_down": 18.32, "downward_expansion": 13.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.723333, 1.709091, 1.662175, 1.633745 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.602549, "distance_from_trend": -0.001591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.479523, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.037239, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025806, "excess_performance": 0.080473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032964, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008402, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.561694, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286704, "relative_activity": 1.516032, "balance": 4.561694, "dry_up": 0.386288, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027355, "annualized_volatility": 0.273871, "from_high_reference": -0.125683, "from_low_reference": 0.086947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.602549, "fair_value_reference": 1.479523, "structural_low": 1.472013, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.01567, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.100629, "worst_return": -0.08, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.058915, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0603, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.16129, "worst_return": -0.044586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03906, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.019922, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.220997, "worst_return": -0.044586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 233623.0, "trend": 1.574625, "fair_value": 1.467689, "relative_strength": 8.601058, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.526461, "energy": 96.831437, "activity_lines": [ 1.686, 1.645455, 1.612453, 1.594888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 230439.85, "trend": 1.581941, "fair_value": 1.470936, "relative_strength": 8.426566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.028578, "energy": 95.348596, "activity_lines": [ 1.718, 1.669273, 1.627704, 1.606203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.8, "volume": 5507, "typical_volume": 174911.35, "trend": 1.590925, "fair_value": 1.474384, "relative_strength": 11.954496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.48126, "energy": 96.990752, "activity_lines": [ 1.756, 1.698545, 1.646858, 1.620271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 174779.55, "trend": 1.600233, "fair_value": 1.477595, "relative_strength": 11.074315, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.529559, "energy": 94.203808, "activity_lines": [ 1.78, 1.723636, 1.664635, 1.63376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 286704, "typical_volume": 189114.75, "trend": 1.602549, "fair_value": 1.479523, "relative_strength": -1.037239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.402842, "energy": 57.419794, "activity_lines": [ 1.723333, 1.709091, 1.662175, 1.633745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }