{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9278a545-3006-484c-840a-4ad8fa6b3276", "symbol": "CIEI", "name": "CIBC MSCI EAFE Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.454, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.407, "architecture_energy": 46.086, "architecture_maturity": 77.031, "architecture_confidence": 50.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.32, "rotation_up": 44.45, "upward_expansion": 73.47, "deceleration": 70.93, "rotation_down": 28.27, "downward_expansion": 11.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.244, 32.228468, 31.688847, 31.173809 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.790001, "trend_reference": 30.631874, "distance_from_trend": 0.070454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.803108, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.045798, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09604, "excess_performance": -0.024381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038299, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.004207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9300, "relative_activity": 0.21055, "balance": 1.004207, "dry_up": 1.18293, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025547, "annualized_volatility": 0.198988, "from_high_reference": -0.025267, "from_low_reference": 0.254076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.631874, "fair_value_reference": 24.803108, "structural_low": 27.723148, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.011976, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.000349, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.060434, "worst_return": -0.104521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.047847, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.002572, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.107394, "worst_return": -0.022888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079511, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011494, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.162519, "worst_return": 0.058645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.189999, "volume": 144500, "typical_volume": 53225.0, "trend": 30.19526, "fair_value": 24.480407, "relative_strength": -0.289874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.63542, "energy": 81.401282, "activity_lines": [ 32.457959, 31.943289, 31.137142, 30.726933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.459999, "volume": 53400, "typical_volume": 52835.0, "trend": 30.298268, "fair_value": 24.557001, "relative_strength": -2.325673, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.944334, "energy": 54.314638, "activity_lines": [ 32.183592, 31.936161, 31.228032, 30.808529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 134600, "typical_volume": 55900.0, "trend": 30.406037, "fair_value": 24.634649, "relative_strength": -1.444983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.017427, "energy": 48.982484, "activity_lines": [ 32.027063, 31.973484, 31.349485, 30.905415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.299999, "volume": 11700, "typical_volume": 47305.0, "trend": 30.523858, "fair_value": 24.717515, "relative_strength": 0.581735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.903798, "energy": 40.341467, "activity_lines": [ 32.071999, 32.06932, 31.504627, 31.027606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.790001, "volume": 9300, "typical_volume": 44170.0, "trend": 30.631874, "fair_value": 24.803108, "relative_strength": -1.045798, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.406915, "energy": 46.086197, "activity_lines": [ 32.244, 32.228468, 31.688847, 31.173809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }