{ "ticker": { "uuid": "927d7f02-fb40-47e1-8373-cfbbf12aee56", "symbol": "RTAI", "name": "RAREVIEW TAX ADVANTAGED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.31, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.061, "architecture_energy": 17.973, "architecture_maturity": 20.842, "architecture_confidence": 67.128, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.12, "rotation_up": 15.12, "upward_expansion": 22.91, "deceleration": 74.71, "rotation_down": 53.78, "downward_expansion": 31.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.028402, 21.174595, 21.162005, 21.11934 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.0778, "trend_reference": 21.100165, "distance_from_trend": -0.00106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.550987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.078094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.933138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008829, "excess_performance": -0.134454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.078094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099331, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.761973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2440, "relative_activity": 0.399352, "balance": 1.761973, "dry_up": 0.181795, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014665, "annualized_volatility": 0.094542, "from_high_reference": -0.034301, "from_low_reference": 0.09517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.100165, "fair_value_reference": 19.550987, "structural_low": 20.136032, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.006274, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.002478, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.063728, "worst_return": -0.091811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03012, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059095, "worst_return": -0.1698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045757, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.088148, "worst_return": -0.056016, "sufficient": 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0.008449, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02843, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036654, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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"relative_strength": -7.138733, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.286662, "energy": 12.703351, "activity_lines": [ 21.23823, 21.27879, 21.182219, 21.137523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.831495, "volume": 353, "typical_volume": 6015.75, "trend": 21.096644, "fair_value": 19.527094, "relative_strength": -8.079233, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.210323, "energy": 17.905505, "activity_lines": [ 21.0694, 21.204795, 21.160079, 21.120556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0778, "volume": 2440, "typical_volume": 6109.9, "trend": 21.100165, "fair_value": 19.550987, "relative_strength": -9.933138, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.061472, "energy": 17.972662, "activity_lines": [ 21.028402, 21.174595, 21.162005, 21.11934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }