{ "ticker": { "uuid": "927e83f9-b0a8-4104-a08e-e8e0c5db9b2e", "symbol": "QXM", "name": "CI Morningstar National Bank Qu\u00e9bec Index ETF Common", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.095, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.192, "architecture_energy": 82.757, "architecture_maturity": 23.715, "architecture_confidence": 72.183, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 75.46, "upward_expansion": 90.89, "deceleration": 46.14, "rotation_down": 12.41, "downward_expansion": 17.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.212, 40.805402, 40.212683, 39.770393 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.200001, "trend_reference": 39.386483, "distance_from_trend": 0.071434, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.675309, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.163948, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070331, "excess_performance": -0.05009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038159, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018707, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070331, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.767442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3500, "relative_activity": 2.845528, "balance": 1.767442, "dry_up": 1.158537, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01921, "annualized_volatility": 0.139556, "from_high_reference": -0.002128, "from_low_reference": 0.252389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.386483, "fair_value_reference": 31.675309, "structural_low": 36.355084, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.01235, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.00168, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.064815, "worst_return": -0.049543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011901, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.008658, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.074878, "worst_return": -0.032042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.071961, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.032147, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.13939, "worst_return": -0.024514, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 40.799999, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 1395.0, "trend": 39.049232, "fair_value": 31.280751, "relative_strength": -2.017098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.678898, "energy": 67.191842, "activity_lines": [ 40.258571, 40.029091, 39.484373, 39.273623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.970001, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 1330.0, "trend": 39.145704, "fair_value": 31.377709, "relative_strength": -1.363197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.242924, "energy": 69.632609, "activity_lines": [ 40.506877, 40.244937, 39.66447, 39.397544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.439999, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 1240.0, "trend": 39.207396, "fair_value": 31.471578, "relative_strength": -2.782332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.12535, "energy": 49.446344, "activity_lines": [ 40.534, 40.335411, 39.790923, 39.481047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.779999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1130.0, "trend": 39.287735, "fair_value": 31.569726, "relative_strength": -1.448401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.487406, "energy": 65.372112, "activity_lines": [ 40.641333, 40.456359, 39.941418, 39.582505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.200001, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 1230.0, "trend": 39.386483, "fair_value": 31.675309, "relative_strength": -1.163948, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.191849, "energy": 82.756646, "activity_lines": [ 41.212, 40.805402, 40.212683, 39.770393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }