{ "ticker": { "uuid": "927f6519-432e-42f0-9bea-fd731e53e615", "symbol": "BIED3", "name": "Bioma Educa\u00e7\u00e3o S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.443, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.917, "architecture_energy": 49.246, "architecture_maturity": 39.492, "architecture_confidence": 59.323, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.57, "rotation_up": 14.4, "upward_expansion": 28.52, "deceleration": 52.38, "rotation_down": 64.12, "downward_expansion": 44.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.222667, 7.498182, 7.822619, 7.706151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.03, "trend_reference": 7.256, "distance_from_trend": -0.031147, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.875889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.441788, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.601879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.528261, "excess_performance": 0.585309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031147, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.441788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.236019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.528261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408497, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5800, "relative_activity": 0.673244, "balance": 0.408497, "dry_up": 0.443993, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078236, "annualized_volatility": 0.891564, "from_high_reference": -0.360909, "from_low_reference": 1.594096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.256, "fair_value_reference": 4.875889, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.118354, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.127647, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.095597, "worst_return": -0.141111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056166, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115723, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 4.31, "volume": 79800, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null 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"volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 11905.0, "trend": 6.946667, "fair_value": 4.8, "relative_strength": 40.795936, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.83368, "energy": 18.539914, "activity_lines": [ 7.824, 8.017273, 8.081, 7.702731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.01, "volume": 7700, "typical_volume": 10685.0, "trend": 7.060333, "fair_value": 4.825114, "relative_strength": 24.494037, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.682562, "energy": 29.283729, "activity_lines": [ 7.545333, 7.820182, 7.987333, 7.706817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.19, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 9285.0, "trend": 7.17, "fair_value": 4.851685, "relative_strength": 23.659084, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.676703, "energy": 32.556135, "activity_lines": [ 7.392667, 7.669636, 7.91319, 7.715183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.03, "volume": 5800, "typical_volume": 8615.0, "trend": 7.256, "fair_value": 4.875889, "relative_strength": 23.601879, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.916505, "energy": 49.245828, "activity_lines": [ 7.222667, 7.498182, 7.822619, 7.706151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }