{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92837224-3fae-463b-a680-d1df1341d8c8", "symbol": "AVIR", "name": "Atea Pharmaceuticals\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.369, "architecture_energy": 15.856, "architecture_maturity": 22.632, "architecture_confidence": 67.057, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.13, "rotation_up": 48.15, "upward_expansion": 39.58, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 22.66, "downward_expansion": 13.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.931333, 4.833455, 4.817476, 4.912172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 4.875667, "distance_from_trend": 0.076776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.651538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.43775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.464047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.26506, "excess_performance": 0.077607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076776, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.43775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10464, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.26506, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.997516, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1405688, "relative_activity": 0.842451, "balance": 0.997516, "dry_up": 1.077881, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109166, "annualized_volatility": 0.660768, "from_high_reference": -0.186047, "from_low_reference": 0.888489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.875667, "fair_value_reference": 3.651538, "structural_low": 3.82, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.034582, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.056395, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.259016, "worst_return": -0.217586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059748, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02853, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32459, "worst_return": -0.312966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.077122, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.220568, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.340694, "worst_return": -0.376502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.107143, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.47123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.061538, "worst_return": -0.506008, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.174359, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.118694, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022013, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.199454, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.218391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109937, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.34, "volume": 1565252, "typical_volume": 2816776.85, "trend": 3.714667, "fair_value": 17.719524, "relative_strength": -37.084847, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.789577, "energy": 9.600366, "activity_lines": [ 4.611333, 4.578, 4.888714, 4.853527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.99, "volume": 1835389, "typical_volume": 1977201.3, "trend": 4.681333, "fair_value": 3.615577, "relative_strength": 5.528921, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.650468, "energy": 10.788289, "activity_lines": [ 4.77, 4.634909, 4.880571, 4.877398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.87, "volume": 1164991, "typical_volume": 1944078.95, "trend": 4.739, "fair_value": 3.623333, "relative_strength": 7.14671, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.685308, "energy": 11.312639, "activity_lines": [ 4.839333, 4.680727, 4.859381, 4.88957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.73, "volume": 1138793, "typical_volume": 1777976.85, "trend": 4.775, "fair_value": 3.631859, "relative_strength": 5.754268, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.443451, "energy": 12.942517, "activity_lines": [ 4.836667, 4.711273, 4.823952, 4.888989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 3484603, "typical_volume": 1754863.2, "trend": 4.815667, "fair_value": 3.639744, "relative_strength": 4.342379, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.531094, "energy": 6.631496, "activity_lines": [ 4.799333, 4.724909, 4.79119, 4.884151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 1405688, "typical_volume": 1668568.75, "trend": 4.875667, "fair_value": 3.651538, "relative_strength": 10.464047, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.368959, "energy": 15.856154, "activity_lines": [ 4.931333, 4.833455, 4.817476, 4.912172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }