{ "ticker": { "uuid": "929cb1af-f222-4f37-aed5-1cb053df1d31", "symbol": "WEBL", "name": "DIREXION DAILY DOW JONES INTERNET BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.167, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.273, "architecture_energy": 42.392, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.353, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.17, "rotation_up": 53.0, "upward_expansion": 77.32, "deceleration": 54.7, "rotation_down": 19.61, "downward_expansion": 8.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.746, 24.779376, 24.539393, 23.506376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.37, "trend_reference": 22.58261, "distance_from_trend": 0.300558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.584143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360721, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.460572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.447623, "excess_performance": 0.321999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.300558, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15837, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014606, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.447623, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1400860, "relative_activity": 0.927648, "balance": 1.597791, "dry_up": 0.641297, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132518, "annualized_volatility": 0.717231, "from_high_reference": -0.166097, "from_low_reference": 0.971141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.58261, "fair_value_reference": 21.584143, "structural_low": 14.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.088794, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.053754, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.243038, "worst_return": -0.322574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.177031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.126245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.590534, "worst_return": -0.335844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.574298, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.449527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.887936, "worst_return": -0.644165, "sufficient": false }, { 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1799936.35, "trend": 22.894195, "fair_value": 21.254609, "relative_strength": -10.514629, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.126729, "energy": 21.187807, "activity_lines": [ 23.926624, 24.407052, 23.617101, 22.898501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.21, "volume": 687487, "typical_volume": 1695035.35, "trend": 22.77539, "fair_value": 21.33057, "relative_strength": -14.798278, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.220966, "energy": 14.932959, "activity_lines": [ 24.147535, 24.310295, 23.797658, 22.983392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.34, "volume": 908146, "typical_volume": 1555683.35, "trend": 22.541263, "fair_value": 21.383724, "relative_strength": -23.688829, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.57978, "energy": 8.365143, "activity_lines": [ 23.347333, 23.698651, 23.681734, 22.890786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.22, "volume": 877245, "typical_volume": 1513569.45, "trend": 22.507095, "fair_value": 21.46846, "relative_strength": -10.251735, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.264399, "energy": 19.691788, "activity_lines": [ 23.979333, 23.853025, 23.928993, 23.063608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.37, "volume": 1400860, "typical_volume": 1510119.65, "trend": 22.58261, "fair_value": 21.584143, "relative_strength": 1.460572, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.273399, "energy": 42.392249, "activity_lines": [ 25.746, 24.779376, 24.539393, 23.506376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }