{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92a43ba4-7feb-40d7-9ab4-2f0ef6c14d1f", "symbol": "PL9", "name": "Prairie Lithium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.615, "architecture_energy": 24.844, "architecture_maturity": 38.675, "architecture_confidence": 95.214, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.52, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 1.73, "deceleration": 50.4, "rotation_down": 46.9, "downward_expansion": 75.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0061, 0.006191, 0.00635, 0.00649 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.006783, "distance_from_trend": -0.115479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.013894, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.568166, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.474469, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.568166, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194745, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48642977, "relative_activity": 2.327144, "balance": 0.627819, "dry_up": 1.497201, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205128, "annualized_volatility": 0.776739, "from_high_reference": -0.454545, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006783, "fair_value_reference": 0.013894, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.074176, "positive_rate": 0.071429, "directional_follow_through": 0.071429, "median_excess_return": -0.094374, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.42, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.160714, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.148154, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.413333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.419643, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.435661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071429, "worst_return": -0.493333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.357143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", 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0.0065, "volume": 11073278, "typical_volume": 17978719.2, "trend": 0.00695, "fair_value": 0.014067, "relative_strength": -8.751812, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.9103, "energy": 23.373879, "activity_lines": [ 0.006233, 0.006318, 0.00645, 0.006609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 53550161, "typical_volume": 19493146.0, "trend": 0.006883, "fair_value": 0.013984, "relative_strength": -17.416429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.356244, "energy": 27.732304, "activity_lines": [ 0.006167, 0.006245, 0.006398, 0.006547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 48642977, "typical_volume": 20902437.1, "trend": 0.006783, "fair_value": 0.013894, "relative_strength": -19.474469, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.615107, "energy": 24.844246, "activity_lines": [ 0.0061, 0.006191, 0.00635, 0.00649 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }