{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92a83b41-ab60-433a-8d21-4f50ba293de6", "symbol": "AG", "name": "First Majestic Silver Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.951, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.176, "architecture_energy": 38.483, "architecture_maturity": 25.645, "architecture_confidence": 90.549, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.44, "rotation_up": 21.03, "upward_expansion": 4.73, "deceleration": 53.46, "rotation_down": 51.87, "downward_expansion": 78.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.641333, 16.819455, 17.900558, 19.03749 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.4, "trend_reference": 20.540853, "distance_from_trend": -0.104224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.860665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.893928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162321, "excess_performance": -0.287946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104224, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.594495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53809290, "relative_activity": 0.854617, "balance": 0.683053, "dry_up": 0.843358, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150269, "annualized_volatility": 0.807639, "from_high_reference": -0.425136, "from_low_reference": 1.226837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.540853, "fair_value_reference": 9.860665, "structural_low": 14.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.006177, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010582, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.37581, "worst_return": -0.150278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026495, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.008439, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.397056, "worst_return": -0.263518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044608, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.112463, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.091705, "worst_return": -0.244005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065995, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018291, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.453629, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.354316, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -13.247514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.337965, "energy": 58.336806, "activity_lines": [ 16.806, 17.421682, 18.671187, 19.81396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.31, "volume": 44022838, "typical_volume": 67336569.15, "trend": 20.590886, "fair_value": 9.725552, "relative_strength": -10.572088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.040517, "energy": 49.297332, "activity_lines": [ 16.544667, 17.095455, 18.346523, 19.535428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.03, "volume": 68753714, "typical_volume": 66061605.45, "trend": 20.55715, "fair_value": 9.783324, "relative_strength": -18.952008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.243672, "energy": 55.750907, "activity_lines": [ 15.969333, 16.610909, 17.945181, 19.176661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.4, "volume": 53809290, "typical_volume": 62963049.4, "trend": 20.540853, "fair_value": 9.860665, "relative_strength": -4.893928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.175721, "energy": 38.483245, "activity_lines": [ 16.641333, 16.819455, 17.900558, 19.03749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }