{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92afdc2c-fb4a-4836-8e00-b5eb3db7f1f5", "symbol": "G2DI33", "name": "G2D Investments, Ltd.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.934, "architecture_energy": 46.638, "architecture_maturity": 80.827, "architecture_confidence": 91.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.18, "rotation_up": 26.11, "upward_expansion": 6.71, "deceleration": 59.46, "rotation_down": 53.15, "downward_expansion": 82.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.150667, 1.156545, 1.194571, 1.25572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 1.353667, "distance_from_trend": -0.150456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.808077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.363965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.5497, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.27673, "excess_performance": -0.219681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101549, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.363965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046905, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27673, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.952326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45162, "relative_activity": 0.391777, "balance": 0.952326, "dry_up": 0.781818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074247, "annualized_volatility": 0.295741, "from_high_reference": -0.378378, "from_low_reference": 0.055046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.353667, "fair_value_reference": 1.808077, "structural_low": 1.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.005181, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.000495, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.235075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020202, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.028609, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.427835, "worst_return": -0.238281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004975, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.158495, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.39899, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.21875, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.370755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035354, "worst_return": -0.23, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09292, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060465, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.19, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123377, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.184397, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.14, "volume": 224083, "typical_volume": 302093.3, "trend": 2.040667, "fair_value": 4.121356, "relative_strength": -16.020711, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", 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"close": 1.23, "volume": 163717, "typical_volume": 135604.15, "trend": 1.419, "fair_value": 1.833013, "relative_strength": -27.477214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.411398, "energy": 53.884811, "activity_lines": [ 1.179333, 1.185818, 1.246762, 1.320516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.15, "volume": 103705, "typical_volume": 132273.65, "trend": 1.406333, "fair_value": 1.827179, "relative_strength": -29.791103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.228803, "energy": 51.078581, "activity_lines": [ 1.173333, 1.175818, 1.231333, 1.303161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.14, "volume": 117734, "typical_volume": 123023.8, "trend": 1.389333, "fair_value": 1.820962, "relative_strength": -29.732748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.990226, "energy": 50.035877, "activity_lines": [ 1.163333, 1.166727, 1.217048, 1.285978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 93895, "typical_volume": 119984.6, "trend": 1.369667, "fair_value": 1.814551, "relative_strength": -30.348942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.491848, "energy": 46.652223, "activity_lines": [ 1.154667, 1.160182, 1.204571, 1.269892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.15, "volume": 45162, "typical_volume": 115274.85, "trend": 1.353667, "fair_value": 1.808077, "relative_strength": -26.5497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.934385, "energy": 46.638214, "activity_lines": [ 1.150667, 1.156545, 1.194571, 1.25572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }