{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92b165da-958d-4622-9f45-cbedbe0f96c9", "symbol": "TRI", "name": "Trigano S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.424, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.016, "architecture_energy": 17.293, "architecture_maturity": 26.264, "architecture_confidence": 69.769, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.76, "rotation_up": 35.36, "upward_expansion": 24.08, "deceleration": 43.67, "rotation_down": 17.43, "downward_expansion": 46.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.306663, 147.652724, 149.498059, 150.756364 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 152.899994, "trend_reference": 154.231567, "distance_from_trend": -0.008634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 132.923142, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150289, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.15679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086941, "excess_performance": -0.140253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008634, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032512, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150289, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071568, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.934235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41337, "relative_activity": 0.809774, "balance": 1.934235, "dry_up": 1.067455, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049354, "annualized_volatility": 0.27529, "from_high_reference": -0.131879, "from_low_reference": 0.145318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 154.231567, "fair_value_reference": 132.923142, "structural_low": 133.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.025338, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011434, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.184828, "worst_return": -0.252916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029822, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.035946, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.177241, "worst_return": -0.275264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.108289, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.068262, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.220373, "worst_return": -0.319928, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1513, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": 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-5.531708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.534057, "energy": 37.830136, "activity_lines": [ 145.219999, 146.46, 149.294609, 151.768947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.399994, "volume": 69796, "typical_volume": 56276.7, "trend": 155.534903, "fair_value": 132.532588, "relative_strength": -7.138202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.223733, "energy": 23.506483, "activity_lines": [ 146.713331, 146.174544, 149.058762, 151.194833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.699997, "volume": 49861, "typical_volume": 54361.35, "trend": 154.861344, "fair_value": 132.718448, "relative_strength": -6.45621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.364801, "energy": 18.330537, "activity_lines": [ 148.473331, 146.687271, 149.180184, 150.882903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.899994, "volume": 41337, "typical_volume": 51047.6, "trend": 154.231567, "fair_value": 132.923142, "relative_strength": -7.15679, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.015501, "energy": 17.29335, "activity_lines": [ 150.306663, 147.652724, 149.498059, 150.756364 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }