{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92b32783-a971-4727-8c50-427bfbe02682", "symbol": "NXPL", "name": "Nextplat Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.827, "architecture_energy": 15.669, "architecture_maturity": 34.049, "architecture_confidence": 77.097, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.4, "rotation_up": 32.21, "upward_expansion": 56.86, "deceleration": 81.39, "rotation_down": 31.27, "downward_expansion": 20.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.170667, 6.251958, 6.244051, 6.044413 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.42, "trend_reference": 5.945323, "distance_from_trend": 0.07984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.405085, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.382994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.542433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103074, "excess_performance": -0.08438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006026, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.382994, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055552, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024527, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103074, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.964654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 269733, "relative_activity": 0.805198, "balance": 1.964654, "dry_up": 0.534559, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.204242, "annualized_volatility": 0.707924, "from_high_reference": -0.421622, "from_low_reference": 0.902222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.945323, "fair_value_reference": 10.405085, "structural_low": 3.375, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.054933, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.095369, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.521739, "worst_return": -0.326364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.231365, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.234857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.664596, "worst_return": -0.503306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.329167, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.462071, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.180124, "worst_return": -0.581675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.516271, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.061102, "worst_return": -0.670642, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.221429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203997, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.35443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.445161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.237214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063369, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038835, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 26.3, "volume": 77942, "typical_volume": 429176.35, "trend": 22.186133, "fair_value": 30.157878, "relative_strength": 9.569992, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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5.93399, "fair_value": 10.687963, "relative_strength": -17.687222, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.926618, "energy": 14.420062, "activity_lines": [ 6.248667, 6.280418, 6.187667, 6.006218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.05, "volume": 173113, "typical_volume": 390468.3, "trend": 5.94399, "fair_value": 10.547258, "relative_strength": -15.047288, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.752098, "energy": 11.970114, "activity_lines": [ 6.144667, 6.232098, 6.201369, 6.013703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.42, "volume": 269733, "typical_volume": 334989.65, "trend": 5.945323, "fair_value": 10.405085, "relative_strength": -13.542433, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.82709, "energy": 15.669007, "activity_lines": [ 6.170667, 6.251958, 6.244051, 6.044413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }