{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92b35107-5730-48d1-ba2d-085aee5b7006", "symbol": "AF", "name": "AIRA Factoring Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.551, "architecture_energy": 55.63, "architecture_maturity": 10.2, "architecture_confidence": 74.315, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.45, "rotation_up": 66.63, "upward_expansion": 87.41, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 11.1, "downward_expansion": 11.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.384667, 0.373091, 0.364857, 0.361075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.38, "trend_reference": 0.352667, "distance_from_trend": 0.077505, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.570983, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334481, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.762248, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1875, "excess_performance": -0.004825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.169702, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109700, "relative_activity": 0.465521, "balance": 4.169702, "dry_up": 1.357097, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095142, "annualized_volatility": 0.351023, "from_high_reference": -0.309091, "from_low_reference": 0.461538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.352667, "fair_value_reference": 0.570983, "structural_low": 0.32, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02063, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002214, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.180432, "worst_return": -0.066116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012677, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.012723, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.055943, "worst_return": -0.162602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.099484, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.10539, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.016807, "worst_return": -0.373984, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045454, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.446602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-08", 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"volume": 479400, "typical_volume": 221925.0, "trend": 0.347, "fair_value": 0.585554, "relative_strength": -12.490456, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.945848, "energy": 30.500909, "activity_lines": [ 0.366667, 0.356909, 0.356524, 0.353699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.39, "volume": 260400, "typical_volume": 218035.0, "trend": 0.348333, "fair_value": 0.580739, "relative_strength": -10.060257, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.667859, "energy": 47.939509, "activity_lines": [ 0.377333, 0.363455, 0.35981, 0.356473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.39, "volume": 429700, "typical_volume": 231720.0, "trend": 0.350333, "fair_value": 0.575862, "relative_strength": -8.565257, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.343352, "energy": 57.493988, "activity_lines": [ 0.384667, 0.369636, 0.362857, 0.359161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.38, "volume": 109700, "typical_volume": 235650.0, "trend": 0.352667, "fair_value": 0.570983, "relative_strength": -9.762248, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.550743, "energy": 55.630169, "activity_lines": [ 0.384667, 0.373091, 0.364857, 0.361075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }