{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92b845a0-a1ee-4787-a554-d8729d3a4cbf", "symbol": "KSM-F113", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (6D) Leveraged DAX 30 x3 Monthly", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.521, "architecture_energy": 63.789, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.69, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.63, "rotation_down": 52.83, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.051333, 86.232, 2077.271714, 3601.947011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 95.63, "trend_reference": 5565.371, "distance_from_trend": -0.982817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6418.840577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985102, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.830437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989831, "excess_performance": -1.018731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985102, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.163573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.622659, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989831, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.805406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115555, "relative_activity": 0.840173, "balance": 1.805406, "dry_up": 0.879668, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.026874, "annualized_volatility": 6.386993, "from_high_reference": -0.990822, "from_low_reference": 0.245993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5565.371, "fair_value_reference": 6418.840577, "structural_low": 76.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016573, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010731, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.354736, "worst_return": -0.989487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.093377, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.191734, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.243648, "worst_return": -0.988197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022488, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137883, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.368011, "worst_return": -0.4475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5565.371, "fair_value": 6418.840577, "relative_strength": -98.830437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.521143, "energy": 63.788892, "activity_lines": [ 89.051333, 86.232, 2077.271714, 3601.947011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }