{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92bae8a1-0d4f-45f7-96d0-80dea17aa8cf", "symbol": "WSO", "name": "Watsco Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.636, "architecture_energy": 77.074, "architecture_maturity": 13.781, "architecture_confidence": 82.526, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.72, "rotation_up": 11.14, "upward_expansion": 19.58, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 78.06, "downward_expansion": 92.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 339.876605, 360.397136, 375.801826, 381.339829 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 330.1, "trend_reference": 387.107619, "distance_from_trend": -0.147266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 411.988494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.249534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207749, "excess_performance": -0.333374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147266, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166704, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560339, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2489531, "relative_activity": 1.13855, "balance": 0.560339, "dry_up": 1.246231, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09331, "annualized_volatility": 0.388394, "from_high_reference": -0.280828, "from_low_reference": 0.097918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 387.107619, "fair_value_reference": 411.988494, 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"fair_value": 411.905985, "relative_strength": -11.276032, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.619358, "energy": 14.618235, "activity_lines": [ 393.488641, 389.090071, 393.562877, 393.041903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 371.91, "volume": 1699023, "typical_volume": 2020952.0, "trend": 388.871252, "fair_value": 412.103129, "relative_strength": -11.219628, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.907121, "energy": 6.993638, "activity_lines": [ 386.526451, 385.775837, 391.559958, 392.01101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 362.01, "volume": 2089482, "typical_volume": 2048275.9, "trend": 389.515118, "fair_value": 412.1759, "relative_strength": -12.266426, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.328657, "energy": 37.4056, "activity_lines": [ 376.618791, 381.546876, 388.815045, 390.278026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 309.3, "volume": 4621901, "typical_volume": 2200556.1, "trend": 388.426924, "fair_value": 412.010395, "relative_strength": -25.140578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.238663, "energy": 75.906809, "activity_lines": [ 351.516007, 368.482279, 381.184076, 385.102857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 330.1, "volume": 2489531, "typical_volume": 2186580.3, "trend": 387.107619, "fair_value": 411.988494, "relative_strength": -22.249534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.636417, "energy": 77.073609, "activity_lines": [ 339.876605, 360.397136, 375.801826, 381.339829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }