{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92cc04a8-04b0-486a-83fe-52fb970674b0", "symbol": "ARM3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long ARM ETP Securities", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.033, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.232, "architecture_energy": 33.104, "architecture_maturity": 55.64, "architecture_confidence": 60.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.73, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 67.15, "rotation_down": 63.25, "downward_expansion": 41.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.036733, 26.524291, 31.596234, 27.147891 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.556, "trend_reference": 20.601567, "distance_from_trend": -0.196372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.939202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.512187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.128649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 2.474866, "excess_performance": 2.303974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.957421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.512187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005709, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.474866, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.152289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19350, "relative_activity": 1.266394, "balance": 1.152289, "dry_up": 1.807573, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.086964, "annualized_volatility": 2.869881, "from_high_reference": -0.824097, "from_low_reference": 5.775527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.601567, "fair_value_reference": 33.939202, "structural_low": 4.0195, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.373511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.454527, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.299223, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.812, "volume": 14130, "typical_volume": 12971.8, "trend": 19.94595, "fair_value": 34.219599, "relative_strength": -3.243078, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.868057, "energy": 27.132888, "activity_lines": [ 22.8748, 36.832037, 34.238734, 27.926466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.506, "volume": 64922, "typical_volume": 16190.7, "trend": 20.183967, "fair_value": 34.060763, "relative_strength": -34.08022, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.033793, "energy": 35.589179, "activity_lines": [ 17.770133, 30.943309, 32.694953, 27.381953 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.556, "volume": 19350, "typical_volume": 15279.6, "trend": 20.601567, "fair_value": 33.939202, "relative_strength": -8.128649, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.232076, "energy": 33.104355, "activity_lines": [ 16.036733, 26.524291, 31.596234, 27.147891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }