{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92d59d20-ca09-47fa-b877-edaa42f83cbe", "symbol": "DOD", "name": "DOD Biotech Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.826, "architecture_energy": 92.203, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.461, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 8.99, "upward_expansion": 21.51, "deceleration": 37.21, "rotation_down": 86.28, "downward_expansion": 99.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.128, 1.216182, 1.383714, 1.475563 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.08, "trend_reference": 1.557393, "distance_from_trend": -0.306533, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.168485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.501956, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.894982, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283204, "excess_performance": -0.475529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.501956, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283204, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.247494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 887800, "relative_activity": 0.621426, "balance": 0.247494, "dry_up": 0.873044, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086895, "annualized_volatility": 0.499097, "from_high_reference": -0.521106, "from_low_reference": 0.018868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.557393, "fair_value_reference": 2.168485, "structural_low": 1.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.047847, "positive_rate": 0.27907, "directional_follow_through": 0.72093, "median_excess_return": -0.038439, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.783333, "worst_return": -0.254032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.093642, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.066315, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.583332, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.095436, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.198695, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.357142, "worst_return": -0.479365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.366798, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.275284, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.065934, "worst_return": -0.593388, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166666, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"energy": 94.21962, "activity_lines": [ 1.244, 1.380545, 1.510151, 1.565091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.16, "volume": 882200, "typical_volume": 2489465.0, "trend": 1.586117, "fair_value": 2.200553, "relative_strength": -41.294148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.522245, "energy": 91.968305, "activity_lines": [ 1.192, 1.323273, 1.468857, 1.536686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.13, "volume": 989700, "typical_volume": 2272000.0, "trend": 1.571292, "fair_value": 2.184741, "relative_strength": -41.427664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.273834, "energy": 91.334716, "activity_lines": [ 1.156, 1.269636, 1.42719, 1.507259 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.08, "volume": 887800, "typical_volume": 1428650.0, "trend": 1.557393, "fair_value": 2.168485, "relative_strength": -42.894982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.826082, "energy": 92.202633, "activity_lines": [ 1.128, 1.216182, 1.383714, 1.475563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }