{ "ticker": { "uuid": "92db722d-4138-4da1-bf4f-9b85c2d1f56a", "symbol": "DISC", "name": "BMO Global Consumer Discretionary Hedged to CAD Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.056, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.554, "architecture_energy": 24.513, "architecture_maturity": 6.622, "architecture_confidence": 85.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.99, "rotation_up": 20.38, "upward_expansion": 4.24, "deceleration": 48.56, "rotation_down": 43.1, "downward_expansion": 70.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.770666, 43.790788, 44.017156, 44.097823 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.349998, "trend_reference": 44.433597, "distance_from_trend": -0.001881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.558203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.836127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025509, "excess_performance": -0.14593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0163, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09349, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03527, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.509091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3700, "relative_activity": 0.304401, "balance": 2.509091, "dry_up": 0.612916, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021099, "annualized_volatility": 0.144622, "from_high_reference": -0.068131, "from_low_reference": 0.063039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.433597, "fair_value_reference": 40.558203, "structural_low": 41.720001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011028, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002153, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.128571, "worst_return": -0.162581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054984, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.02587, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.095844, "worst_return": -0.119044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.120964, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169403, "worst_return": -0.052779, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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-12.563006, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.258081, "energy": 32.331803, "activity_lines": [ 43.978127, 44.09543, 44.163846, 44.364646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.77, "volume": 6100, "typical_volume": 11130.0, "trend": 44.729694, "fair_value": 40.362812, "relative_strength": -12.585309, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.531009, "energy": 42.522946, "activity_lines": [ 43.894765, 44.012559, 44.12803, 44.296679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.5, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 11195.0, "trend": 44.597875, "fair_value": 40.418407, "relative_strength": -14.91107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.107533, "energy": 60.184055, "activity_lines": [ 43.412733, 43.716035, 43.98105, 44.152827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.93, "volume": 16600, "typical_volume": 12005.0, "trend": 44.534694, "fair_value": 40.48699, "relative_strength": -11.279035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.351783, "energy": 38.158413, "activity_lines": [ 43.536667, 43.708964, 43.979535, 44.109739 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.349998, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 12155.0, "trend": 44.433597, "fair_value": 40.558203, "relative_strength": -12.836127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.554261, "energy": 24.513478, "activity_lines": [ 43.770666, 43.790788, 44.017156, 44.097823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }